Chasing A Flush on the Internet
February 12th, 2013 at 4:21
Chasing a flush on line – Sometimes the numbers just don’t add up!
There’s an age old debate in poker – should you chase a flush? Initially of all we must define what we imply here by "chasing a flush on the net."
Chasing anything in Texas holdem poker may be the practice of wagering to stay in a hand in the hope which you will generate a much better hands, even despite the fact that you could possibly have absolutely nothing in the time. So chasing a flush implies betting that you will acquire the card or card that you simply need to total your flush hand within the turn or river. You can not chase a flush before the flop because at that time you only have two cards so the flush is not on.
So let’s say you are playing one of the massive poker websites on the net, you’ve been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you have paid to see the flop.
The flop is 2s 7 spades King of diamonds and one of your competitors comes out wagering strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?
First of all ask yourself what variety of hand you’re up against. The possibilities are triples, yet another flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you are only succeeding towards the bluff with your Ace. To the other hand in the event you hit a spade in the last two cards you’ve got the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or 4 of a kind.
Within the face of it you may assume that statistically you might have about a 50-50 chance of hitting your spade, after all there is two cards to come and four suits so there must be about a half probability, correct?
Wrong!
You already have 2 of the spades in your hands and there’s a different 2 showing to the table, so you know 5 cards and 4 of them are spades. That means you’ve got nine spades left readily available out of the 47 cards you have not seen, which is only a forty two per cent chance of catching your flush.
If you do wager to the turn and don’t make your flush, what do you do then? You might have possibly now become pot-committed, you’ve got put so significantly into the pot that you might as properly wager again within the river unless there’s a massive raise or all-in towards you, except now your odds of creating the flush have dropped dramatically to only twenty one per-cent.
Except what of that other factor, the mysterious internet poker syndrome? What I imply by which is although you statistically have a 42 % chance of creating a flush, is that what really occurs in reality? If you played the same palm at the similar internet poker table 100 occasions would you have a flush 42 instances? From my personal understanding I doubt it. Flushes seem to arrive around a great deal much less typically than 42 out of one hundred instances!
That is just my own opinion and I am certain the poker web sites would tell you a various story, but the way I see it’s 42 percent is the really Very best you are ever going to have and you might properly have a good deal much less chance than that of hitting your flush.
Bottom line? Chasing a flush on the web is a extremely risky method that sucks you in and over commits you, without giving you enough of a opportunity of pulling out the winning hand.